Agenda
October 24 – Timezones
Conference Opening
Trade what you see, not what you believe
Market performance has been the exact opposite of what the economic fundamentals suggest should be the case. The highest unemployment since the Depression along with a massive COVID infection rate and lockdowns has created the fastest market recovery every seen. How do we trade or invest in this environment? What analysis methods worked, and which methods failed? What did we really learn about the relationship between analysis and trading?
Guppy will examine methods that survived the COVID disruption and those which may protect against snapback conditions as markets and economic move back into sync.
Sequence of volume spread analysis: A bar counting method of potential reversal
Current VSA method still relate to the principles of : price & volume, cause & effect, effort & result. Developed on Wyckoff’s work, supply & demand finally drive the market with any reasons include fundamental, technical and other signals. Classical technical analysis does not explain enough the relation between volume and bar direction, which is important part of behavior finance. We try to figure out the balance between supply and demand in order to track the move of smart money. Different from TD sequential, the volume sequence based on the relative change of bar spread and volume. Most reversals always come up with exhaustion of previous trend, volume will never lie as it is an unique true information from the market, how it confirm exhaustion? We will talk about a basic setup and bar counting method in this issue.
Using Volatility to Determine the Trend of Securities and Markets
We often think about volatility in terms of risk. High volatility is synonymous with risky investments. But what if we were able to use volatility as a trend indicator? Given that each security has it’s own levels of volatility, we’d have a metric which auto-tunes to the security we are analysing.
In this presentation, Mathew will explain how we can use volatility to identify changes in trend—based on a 1990’s technique—and how that can be used to produce some unique breadth measures. He’ll finish up with a full quantitative analysis of the techniques.
Shall we focus on Bitcoin in an Uncertain and Unstable World Environment ?
The COVID-19 and the US-China trade war have put the global economy in a turmoil.
The Major Central banks are printing moneys as a measure to control the turmoil.
Under such circumstances, it is natural for gold to attract attention, but how about cryptocurrencies?
I share the review of Bitcoin market in past, and would show the future view of Bitcoin toward to the next year by the image processing technology as AI.
How to Build Investment Strategies with AI and Machine Learning
Recent advances in AI and machine learning are finding practical applications across many industries, not least the finance industry. In particular, research into the use of AI and machine learning as a new tool for stock investment has been very active.
I’ll show how AI and machine learning can be applied to the problem of discovering and implementing stock investment strategies.
As an example, I’ll introduce an example of developing machine learning based forecasting methods while focusing on the perspective of price fluctuation patterns, which is the philosophy of technical analysis.
Time-series analysis of Japanese mutual fund performance: Considerations on asset flow and return
After a series of institutional reforms to promote “a flow from savings to investments,” Japanese mutual funds have come under the spotlight as a potentially useful way to build assets in Japanʼs aging society. This paper, therefore, looks at the main trends in the Japanese open-end fund market over the past 20 years and then uses time-series analysis focusing on asset flow and return to analyze Japanese open-end funds overall and by product category. Net asset value (NAV) was broken down into net asset value per share (NAVPS) and unit number, and the relation between changing rates of NAVPS and those of unit number was examined. The results show a correlation with a time lag in some categories (e.g., unit number for the current month tends to rise when the previous monthʼs NAVPS has risen).
Momentum Investment using ETFs
An overview of using momentum for investment: how it works, why it works, and the spectrum of expected returns. The presentation will focus on using ETFs to build momentum portfolios, focusing on strategies available to the retail investor.
How to profit $30,000 from Gold trading with Sun Capricorn Cycle and 1.618 Divergence Fibonacci
Gold Trading offers huge profits in a very short period of time. The secret to secure the profits consistently by finding a vibration of the price characteristic. In 2010 I found a very significant planetary cycle correlation that gives a 90% consistent trend direction projection of Gold. By combining this planetary cycle and technical analysis, we have proven that made USD30,000 a year is not a big deal. I have made more than USD5,000,000 profits from USD2,000 capital between 2012 and 2020 with this planetary cycle, and today I will share it with you.
Power Hour Team by AATI – Smart trading with technical analysis
08:00 Frankfurt / 05:00 PM Sydney / 02:00 AM New YorkTime
Muhammad Alfatih 
Soeratman Doerachman 
Linda Lee 
Hendra Martono Liem 
Angelo Michel 
Aria Santoso 
Indrawijaya Rangkuti
- Muhammad Alfatih: “Tweaking Indicators: to enhance its performance”
- Soeratman Doerachman: “The Musketeers Meet Samurai:Combining easy western and eastern indicators”
- Linda Lee: “Intraday Technique: Price Cluster Analysis”
- Hendra Martono Liem: “Multiple Time Frame Trend and Volume Analysis”
- Angelo Michel & Aria Santoso: “Market Volume Analysis to Locate Demand Power & Selling Pressure”
- Indrawijaya Rangkuti: “Market Mood: Place & Time Synchronized”
Opening of the European Session
Successfully trading Options in volatile markets
In his presentation Dr. Gregor Bauer will in short explain the Basics of Options-Trading. He will especially focus on how the implied volatility influences option-pricing. He will give examples of how to avoid common pitfalls when trading bottom and top reversals by applying Long Call- and Long Put- Strategies.
The Supercycle Top and Deflation
The past few decades have seen a gradual topping out process in financial markets. That process is set to accelerate as deflation asserts a vice-like grip.
The end of alpha: Risk Factors Theory revisited
Risk premia and Style Factors theory have been very popular during these recent years with a lot of business implications in the asset management business.
What are the key issues ? One of the first objective of factors principles was to save CAPM and Efficient Market Hypothesis theories via a significant improvement. The second objective was to undermine the protagonists of alpha. The idea that one can any portfolio performance with an exposure to specific betas (value, size, quality or whatever…) was potentially the end of alpha… It was meaning for instance that Technical Analysis was definitely useless!
Hopefully, we will see that in reality, some factors commonly used in the industry such as momentum or Low Volatility are curiously not taken up by the Fama & French model. And for good reasons: these factors based on behavioral biases completely contradict theconclusions of CAPM theory and render it obsolete.
Thus, we’ll conclude that the factors theory reinforces the behaviourist principles, justifying the use of techniques to benefit from them. It strengthens the use of Technical analysis while financial theory needs to reinvent itself in order to retain some credibility
Spot market trends with Heikin Ashi
It’s not necessarily rocket science to analyze markets and predict future prices. Did you know Heikin Ashi? These candles are an excellent tool helping investors to try to capture price reversals and reveal the strength of the current trend. The purpose of this presentation will be to deepen your knowledge and provide useful advice on your interpretation.
Agenda:
- Definition of Heikin Ashi
- Standard version vs Smoothed
- Multi-timeframe approach
Better investing using market effects
Financial markets show reoccurring patterns. Numerous scientific studies prove the existence of these market effects, which are used by professional investors to achieve above-average returns. In this presentation we will focus on 4 different strategies based on reoccurring market effects. We will show you how you can increase your returns particularly easily with these market effects.
You can take advantage of these market effects too.
Especially investors not wanting to spend a lot of time managing their investments should follow this presentation. Using market effects is not only cost effective but also time-efficient.
Building a money printing machine with AI
The Power of Cross Asset confirmations
Cross asset confirmations are like a jigsaw puzzle. All pieces need to fit together. Yet, these are a moving targets and the process needs regular monitoring. The cross asset environment it delivers and the divergences it highlights are so many confirmations that we believe widely improve Investment and Trading decisions.
In this presentation, we will explain the basic tenets of our proprietary MJT oscillator methodology (www.mjtsa.com). It aims to capture the cyclical rhythm of any instrument over any frequency to identify current, and anticipate future, market inflection points (for example, intermediate or important tops or bottoms, as well as Buy the Dips or Sell the rebounds opportunities). It is this prospective timing we use to coordinate the cross asset environment we expect over the next few quarters, months or weeks. We will show how we first perform top-down Intermarket Analysis on key drivers (such as main equity indexes, main currencies, main benchmark bond yields, gold, copper, oil and related ratios), and then confirm our conclusions bottom up with the use of Cyclical Analogs. We will then show how we map out our whole investment universe vs this cross asset framework. We will conclude the presentation using our FinGraphs.com retail trend analysis platform, where users can upload market mosaics comprising up to 16 streaming graphs from all asset classes, for intraday and intrahour cross asset monitoring.
A Treasury of Wall Street Wisdom: The Wisdom of past Master Market Technicians applied to the future.
Panel Discussion – 16:00 Frankfurt / 01:00 AM (Oct. 25) Sydney / 10:00 AM New YorkTime
The Evolution of Trading – From Pen and Paper to Artificial Intelligence
Opening of the American Session
What makes for World Champion Traders?
IFTA Award for Welles Wilder, presented by Saleh Nasser and Wieland Arlt
18:05 Frankfurt / 03:05 AM (Oct. 25) Sydney / 12:05 PM New YorkTime
Incorporating Wyckoff Method Analysis into Portfolio Construction
In this presentation, Roman will show how to incorporate Wyckoff Method analysis into building your portfolio. He will explain his approach to Price Structural Analysis and the specific Wyckoff patterns he looks for. Then he will discuss how to add Supply/Demand relationships to the selection process. Finally, Roman will demonstrate how he assesses the potential “character of the next move.” This presentation will feature many illustrative examples of Price Structural and Tape Reading techniques.
Elliott Waves: Bringing the Theory into the Daily Trading
Many chart technicians gave up learning and applying the Elliott Waves as too many ways of counting drove the trader mad and the accounts to zero. However, the few who continue fighting through the theory often suffer while applying and giving up finally.
Thus, the Elliott Waves often have a reputation – at best – of being a nice theory but not applicable for successful trading. That is sad as this technique gives so much more than just the next market direction. The Elliott Waves also provide some valuable ideas about the probabilities what is happening next and thus a good base for calculating the risks.
Back-Testing Relative Performance and
Evaluating Technical versus Macroeconomic and Corporate Research
Bloomberg has long offered back-testing of trading strategies based on technical indicators (both mainstream and customized), complete with optimization to find the best settings. Bloomberg now extends this into two key areas:
- Back-test technical trading strategies in relative terms, e.g. pairs trading or relative to an index or portfolio (benchmark & customized). Buy-side users can now quantify optimum trading strategies relative to actual portfolios, while sell-side users can offer recommendations which are carefully tailored to their clients’ investment parameters.
- Back-test trading strategies using Bloomberg’s vast library of global economic and corporate data. The value of macroeconomic research can finally be compared directly with technical analysis. Back-test equity brokers’ analyst recommendations, together with the impact of corporate activity (e.g. stock-splits or dividends), all on both an individual and relative basis.
This presentation demonstrates how Bloomberg technical analysis meets the practical needs of modern trading and investment, with direct comparison with macroeconomic research, analyst recommendations and corporate activity.
How to Catch the Big Swings with One Simple Strategy
Wieland Arlt focuses on three criteria for his trading setups: a high probability of occurrence, a long way to the targeted goal and a clear message if the market has changed its mind. These criteria are combined in the expander strategy presented.
Learn why this one simple strategy is suitable for all market phases, get in touch with the ingredients of this strategy and get to know how you can implement that strategy into your trading no matter if you are trading intraday or in the long term.
System Thinking: The Holy Grail to dealing with a Pandemic or any other crisis
The markets are a process not a think. When you turn it into a thing and give it characteristics and represent it a certain way, you need to realize that that representation is made up. It’ represents your beliefs. Thus, you must trade useful beliefs – meaning that have value (i.e., make you money) in a wide context and will work for a lot of people. And here its important to know that beliefs are not true, but we can call them facts if they work in a wide enough context.
There are multiple factors that influence the outcome of a trade. And this is what systems thinking it about – it’s not just your trading system, but there are also about 15 total systems that we’ve identified that could impact your trading.
And the fact that the most important system in this pandemic is the You factor. If you understand how to master that factor, then you have a good chance of doing a lot more than surviving.
Do market’s face a potential “Minsky” moment collapse?
If so, then what is likely the crisis-opportunity ahead and what are the best strategies for optimizing risk?
Ron William will outline a behavioural technical analysis framework, as highlighted by a late-cycle rare exhaustion pattern on the S&P500.
This follows warning shot overbought reactions, after multiple “irrational exuberance” greed sentiment readings in August. Most notable was overcrowding of large tech equity positions in the options market, with the put-to-call ratio hitting multi-year extremes, based on linear extrapolations of the “V” shape recovery and omnipotent Fed Put.
Ron will also discuss timing models, which predicted the recent shake-out in late August-early September and signal further asymmetric into this negative seasonality period, weighed by larger cycle forces such as the decennial pattern and USA presidential elections.
Active versus Passive Indexing
